前兆波及其地震预测意义

Precursor wavess and its prediction significance of strong earthquake

摘要:

通过回顾自20世纪60年代以来地震前兆波的研究与地震预测实践的进展情况,分析利用地震前兆波进行地震预测研究所取得的一些有意义的进展及其在科学上面临的困难,分别对前兆波及其定义、前兆波预测大地震事件基本依据、前兆波观测技术概述、前兆波的地震预测意义进行了探讨。文中定义了地震前兆波,以固体均匀弹性中的介质点波动方程和大量震例总结的前兆波阶段性特征,说明利用地震前兆波预测大地震事件具有坚实的理论基础和实践依据。文中阐述了前兆波观测技术的发展要求,并提出了改变目前的被动观测状况、对观测目标区域发生破坏性地震的短期和临震前兆进行主动观测的科学思路; 应强化对地震震源区的观测,利用前兆波携带的信息研究震源及其附近地区的介质参数变化,对实现短临地震预测是有意义的。

Abstract:

The paper reviews the development and results of seismic precursory waves since the 1960s． The significant progress has been made in the development of earthquake prediction research using precursory waves． But there are still some fundamental problems which need working out． The authors discuss the seismic precursory waves from such respects as its definition， basis for the strong earthquake prediction， observation technology， predicting significance，etc． Definition of seismic precursory waves is explained． The characteristics of seismic precursory waves change with time according to some seismic examples，which is also proved from both the theory of isotropic elastic wave equations and the practice of precursor observation． It is reasonable and scientific that the strong earthquake prediction can use precursory waves． The paper elaborates on the development of precursory wave observation technology． In order to actively gain abnormal source signal，the authors suggest that the present observations should be changed to better enhanced monitoring of the focal region． Since seismic precursory waves carry lots of information about medium parameters variations in the focus and its nearby area，it is significant to apply precursory waves to the short-term earthquake prediction．