利用1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震震源机制解及滑动分布模型的资料,计算了由台湾海峡7.3级地震造成的静态库仑应力变化。对余震的分布进行了研究与分析,从震后余震的分布与应力场的情况及历史上这一地区的震源地分布的角度对库仑应力的变化进行了分析。结果显示,基于滑动分布模型正演的静态库仑应力变化在距震中相对较远的区域与余震分布的一致性较好,约90%的余震发生在库仑应力增加的区域;在震中附近计算出的库仑应力变化比较复杂,与余震的分布序列并不完全一致。在距震中较远的区域,库仑应力变化能比较好的反映余震的分布,而在震中附近库仑应力变化与余震分布的对应关系则比较复杂。以闽粤滨海断裂带为接收断层计算了其上的库仑应力变化,结果显示其西南段上的应力增加,促使其活动性增强,认为在闽粤滨海断裂带与NW走向的上杭-东山断裂交汇的南澎岛-东山岛海域发生地震的潜在危险性较大。

Using the focal mechanism and slip distribution model of the Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake on Sep.16,1994,we calculated the static coulomb stress change stemming from the earthquake.Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field as well as the location of historical earthquake,we researched the coulomb stress change of Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake.The result shows that：static coulomb stress change forward modeling based on slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the area that is far away from the epicenter.Ninety percent aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas.The coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter.It follows that coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock occurrence far away from epicenter,while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near epicenter.Through the calculation,we find that the coulomb stress change in southwest part of Min-Yue（Fujian-Guangdong） coastal fault zone is increased,and this enhances the seismic activity.As it is the intersection area of Min-Yue coastal fault with Shanghang-Dongshan fault,we considered the Nanpeng Island-Dongshan Island surroundings have a high potential seismic risk.[著者文摘]

国家自然科学基金（U0933006）;国家自然科学基金（41006030 41176054）共同资助; 广东省“908”专项课题（GD908-JC-03 GD908-JC-10）