基于层次分析的辽宁地区中强震预测指标体系及效能评估

Efficiency evaluation of prediction indicators for medium-strong earthquakes in the Liaoning area based on analytic hierarchy

摘要:

本文从辽宁地区映震效果较好的预测指标出发,采用层次分析法建立了辽宁地区中强震预测指标体系,在此基础上,应用1～9比率标度法构建判断矩阵,进而计算各指标的权重。结果显示,10项映震效果较好的指标中,权重值居前3位的分别是短期预测指标中的前震序列、流体异常和b值。同时层次分析模型也给出了辽宁地区有无中强震的综合判定指标Y,Y值可较好地反映辽宁地区中强震的震兆强弱程度和异常可靠性,当Y≥1.41时（若有前震序列,则Y≥2.59）,辽宁地区短期内存在发生中强震的危险。

Abstract:

Prediction index system model of medium-strong earthquakes in Liaoning is established using analytic hierarchy based on better predictors reflecting the earthquake in Liaoning. On this basis, we built the judgment matrix,with 1-9 ratio scale and then calculated the weight of each index. The results showed that the top three weight indicators were the foreshock sequence, fluid anomalies and b value in short-term predictors among 10 better predictors reflecting the earthquake. The analytic hierarchy process model also indicated that comprehensive predication index Y with medium-strong earthquakes in the Liaoning area, Y value can better reflect the strong or weak of earthquake precursor and abnormal reliability in Liaoning area. When Y≥ 1.41 （If there is a foreshock sequence then Y≥2.59）, medium-strong earthquakes will be likely to occur in Liaoning in a short-term.[著者文摘]