中国大陆M_S≥7.0地震与潮汐库仑破裂应力关系研究

Relationship of Ms ≥7. 0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland and tidal coulomb failure stress

摘要:

选取1900～2012年中国大陆MS≥7.0浅源地震为研究对象,计算日月潮汐在发震断层面引起的库仑破裂应力,确定潮汐相位角。通过Schuster检验,定量分析了中国大陆强震与日月潮汐库仑破裂应力之间的相关性。结果表明,具有震源机制解的57次强震中,71.9%的强震发生在潮汐加载相位区间,Schuster检验p值为3.83%,显示中国大陆7级强震与潮汐库仑破裂应力间存在很好的相关性。活跃期p值为4.56%,75.5%的地震发生在潮汐加载相位区间;而在平静期发生在加载相位区间的地震比例为50%。表明活跃期内的强震受潮汐库仑破裂应力的加载触发更为显著。

Abstract:

In this paper, we focused on earthquakes with Ms ≥7.0 in Chinese mainland from 1900 to 2012, calculated the lunisolar tidal coulomb failure stress on the seismic fault plane and got the tidal phase. With the help of Schuster＇s examination, a quantitative analysis was made about the correlation of strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland with tidal coulomb failure stress. Research shows that of 57 strong earthquakes with focal mechanism solutions, over 71.9% took place within the tidal loading phase. The p value is 3.83%, demonstrating that strong earthquakes with Ms≥ 7.0 in Chinese mainland have a certain correlation with lunisolar tidal coulomb failure stress. In the active period, the p value is 41 56% , and 75.5% earthquakes occurred in the tidal loading phase zone. 50% earthquakes occurred in the quiescence period, indicating that strong earthquakes in the active period were obviously triggered with the tidal coulomb failure stress loading.