对南北地震带及附近的108项流体资料进行趋势性转折变化分析,筛选出变化相对稳定、持续时间3年以上的趋势性转折72次,以2000年为界分2个时段根据转折时间点和形态进行时空特征分析。针对南北地震带北段流体资料在2个时段中存在的突出的群体性特征,结合跨断层水准测量资料,得出北段由2000年之前构造应力状态相对松弛转为2000年之后构造应力大范围增强的初步认识,以期为未来强震趋势判断提供一定的参考。

In the past few decades, precursor materials were used to the short-term earthquake tracking and annual meeting, and rarely be used for medium and long-term analysis. Base on some existing research results and related earthquake preparation theory model, we analyzed the trend turnings changes in 108 groundwater data. We choose 72 stable trend turnings with duration more than three years, and analyzed the space and time characteristics of those trend turnings according to the turning point in time and form. The data time series were divided into two periods at the year of 2000. According to the group characteristics of trend turnings of groundwater and cross fault leveling data of the north-south seismic belt in two periods, we found that the tectonic stress state in north of north-south seismic belt was enhanced after 2000, and it was a relative relaxation before. The results of this paper could provide some references for the future judgment to the earthquake activities in the north-south seismic belt.

2012年度中国地震局震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务“南北地震带流体资料趋势变化分析”（2012020306）资助