基于主成分分析方法,对大同6.1、张北6.2和文安5.1级地震前后首都圈地区的跨断层形变资料进行了综合分析,计算了断层垂直形变速率及其各个主成分和能够反映断层总体活动水平的综合指标W。结果表明,主成分分析方法能够最大限度地保留原始信息,去除相关干扰信息,有助于对前兆资料的分析研究;综合指标W可以较好地反映前兆资料的异常变化,能够代表一个地区前兆观测资料的总体映震水平;首都圈跨断层流动形变资料对大同6.1、张北6.2、文安5.1级地震都有较好的映震能力,从中可以捕捉到中强地震孕育、发展、发生过程中的前兆异常信息。

Based on principal component analysis method，we analyze comprehensively faultcrossing data before and after the Datong earthquake MS6. 1，the Zhangbei earthquake MS6. 2 and the Wen'an earthquake MS5. 1 in the capital region of China，calculated the fault vertical deformation rate，all principal components and the composite indicator W of fault vertical deformation rate that could reflect the overall level of all faults activity． The results indicates that principal component analysis method could capture most of original information and remove the interference information． It is helpful for us to analyze precursor information． Comprehensive index W can reflect the abnormal changes of the precursor data well，and can also reflect the overall level of earthquake-reflecting of a regional precursor observations． Cross-fault flow deformation data in the capital region of China have strong earthquake-reflecting ability on the Datong earthquake MS6. 1，the Zhangbei earthquake MS6. 2 and the Wen'an earthquake MS5. 1， and can better capture the precursory anomalies information of strong earthquake preparation， development and occurrence．

中国地震局专项(HBA2);北京市自然科学基金(8022009);地震科技星火计划(XH12001)联合资助