本文综述了近期基于应力变化的余震预测研究进展。从静态库仑应力触发角度对余震活动进行研究主要有两方面内容:一是集中于对主震触发余震机制的讨论;二是通过库仑应力变化分布区域与实际余震空间分布区域进行定性对比分析，并认为库仑应力变化为正的区域有利于余震的发生，而这正是余震活动与应力变化高度相关的重要证据。基于应力变化的余震预测研究的一项重要内容是建立在速率-状态依从摩擦定律基础之上的余震活动率研究，即将余震活动作为一系列独立的成核事件，从断层滑动触发地震的角度出发，结合静态库仑应力计算得到余震活动率，进而得到余震数量。余震活动是与断层面上的剪切应力变化相关联的，余震活动率受应力扰动幅度、应力加载速率、断层基本物理特性及背景地震活动率等的影响。考虑到“余震激发余震”的特点，ETAS 模型与静态库仑应力变化相结合的研究方法提供了一条统计学与物理学方法(应力变化)相结合、能更完整地刻画余震活动特征的可能途径。

Research of the aftershock activity base on static stress triggering has two main aims: to discuss about how mainshock triggers aftershocks，and to find the qualitative relationship between coulomb stress distribution and the actual spatial distribution of aftershocks． It is generally believed that aftershocks occur in the area in which the coulomb stress change is right． This is an important evidence of the relationship between the stress changes and aftershock activity． In the research of aftershock prediction based on the stress change，one important method is the rate- and state-dependent friction law． It regards the aftershock activity as a series of separate “earthquake nucleation”events，and based on the theory of fault slip triggering earthquakes，it gets the aftershock activity rate from static stress change，and the number of aftershocks as a result． Aftershock activity is associated with shear stress change on the faults， and seismicity rate changes depend on the amplitude of stress disturbance，the stressing rate，the physical constitutive properties of faults ( represented by the parameter Aσ)，and the background seismicity rate of the study area． The statistical self-similar characteristics of aftershocks in ETAS model may provide an approach to describe the aftershock activity more precisely using both statistical and physical ( stress change) method．

国家“十二·五”科技支撑计划项目专题(2012BAK19B02-05)资助