从概率论出发，推导出从上一次地震发生时间到下一次地震发生时间(等待时间)的数学表达式，并给出了威布尔分布、指数分布、均匀分布的等待时间表达式。在此基础上，以河北省及其邻近地区为例，用3 个分布函数分别计算了各地区发生5. 0 级以上地震的等待时间发震概率及回溯性检验，并利用AIC 准则对何种分布函数更适合华北地区5. 0 级以上强震危险性分析进行了讨论。

The paper derives a mathematical expression on the basis of the probability theory for the time from one earthquake to the next earthquake ( waiting time)，and gives the waiting time expressions in terms of Weibull distribution，exponential distribution，and uniform distribution． We take Hebei Province and its adjacent area as an example，and the three distribution functions are calculated for the waiting time probability of earthquakes with M≥5． 0 in the regions in future and the kind of distribution function is more suitable for the North China area． the M≥5． 0 earthquake hazard analysis are discussed using AIC criteria．

河北省地震科技星火计划重点课题资助