利用弹性半空间模型和岩石圈介质波速模型，计算了1976年龙陵7.3、7.4级地震和1988年澜沧-耿马7.6、7.2级地震2次双震间及对后续地震的应力变化影响，同时对该区未来地震活动性进行了研究。得到以下结论：①龙陵双震属共轭型双震活动，前一次地震的发生对后一次地震有抑制作用；而澜沧-耿马地震则属于牵动型双震活动，澜沧7.6级地震对其后的耿马7.2级地震有一定的触发作用，其库仑应力变化值为0.35bar；②绝大多数后续余震受到了主震的应力触发作用，其中龙陵双震触发效果较明显；③根据震后粘弹性松弛应力场变化得出，现阶段NW向的腾冲-龙陵、永德-勐省以及澜沧东南地区，NE向的瑞丽、镇安、大理、上允、永平等地区地震危险性有所增强，这与该区地震活动性增强相吻合。

The southwest part of Yunnan Province is located in the northeast of Indian plate and Eurasian plate，southeast edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau，which is one of the strongest tectonic activity areas in China. The Longling and Lancang-Gengma earthquakes are typical double-earthquakes in this area. Based on Okada's elastic half-space model and medium wave velocity model of lithology，we calculated Coulomb stress changes of two between double earthquakes and aftershocks. Meanwhile，we analyzed the seismicity of this area. The results showed that: (1)The Longling earthquakes were conjugate and Lancang-Gengma earthquakes were opposite；they were the affecting type. Due to this result，which made the Gengma earthquake in the area with ΔCFS＞0，and the value is 0.35bar. (2)With double earthquakes triggering subsequent aftershocks，because of the Coulomb stress changes of Longling double earthquakes，which triggered most of all aftershocks. The trigger effect was far greater than Lancang-Gengma earthquakes. (3)Based on the viscoelastic relaxation effects after earthquakes，we concluded that the seismic hazard will be higher in the NW—Tengchong-Longling，Yongde-Mengsheng and the southeast of Lancang，the NE—Ruili，Zhenan，Dali and Yongping areas，which is consistent with the distribution of seismic activity.

公益性行业科研专项《中国地震活断层探察-南北地震带中南段》(201108001)资助