通过综述时间相依的概率地震危险性分析的研究历史、发展现状，以及对未来在我国发展和应用前景的展望。本文认为，未来我国时间相依的概率地震危险性分析的发展趋势体现在地震活动性模型参数的确定、特征地震模型的适用性及判断准则、重复地震思想的应用、影响特征地震危险性计算因素的研究、大型构造上特征地震震源段落的识别划分、相邻构造相互影响机制研究等方面。未来时间相依的概率地震危险性分析在我国的应用领域主要是给定时间段内的地震风险评估、应急备灾、地震保险等方面。

This paper reviews the history and progress of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis，and makes a simple prospect on its future development and application prospect. It declares that future study tendency on time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis will be reflected in the determination of seismicity model parameters，applicability and judgment rule of characteristic earthquake model，application of ideas of repeating earthquake，studies on factors of effecting the calculation of characteristic seismic hazard，recognition of seismic source segmentation on large structures and mechanism of adjacent structure interaction. Seismic risk assessment in a certain period，emergency disaster preparedness and earthquake insurance will be future application areas of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard in China.

地震行业专项“芦山7.0级地震孕育发生机理及其影响研究”(201408014)资助