可操作的地震预测(OEF)国际研究动态综述

A review on the international research of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting(OEF)

摘要:

对目前国际上正持续开展的“可操作的地震预测”的研究动态，从主要关注的领域、“概率增益”概念的引入、混合模型研发及其在地震减灾中的应用等方面进行了重点介绍。由于OEF是在全球“地震可预测性合作研究”计划基础上逐步发展起来，具有重要的地震预测模型研发的技术基础以及解决地震减灾决策实际问题的实践基础，因此，相关研究动态和技术思路对我国的地震预测预报工作具有重要的启发和借鉴意义。

Abstract:

In this paper,the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting(OEF) is introduced from the major areas of probability gain,hybrid model development,and application in earthquake disaster reduction. Because the OEF is developed on the basis of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP) project,it has very important technical foundation for earthquake forecast modeling and the practical foundation for solving the actual problems in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation. The related research and its technical connotation have important inspirational and referential significance for earthquake forecasting/prediction.