对东日本大地震序列潜热通量异常现象的讨论

Discussion on surface latent heat flux anomalies before the Great East Japan Earthquake sequence

摘要:

用美国国家环境预报中心的表面潜热通量数据，对2011年东日本大地震序列前后所出现的潜热通量异常展开讨论，结合主震震中周边区域在1991~2011年的中强地震序列数据，分析了潜热通量异常与地震之间的关系。结果表明：①东日本大地震前的潜热通量剧烈变化不一定是异常，且不一定由此次地震活动引起；②该研究区域内20年间出现过多次有疑似"热异常"却无明显震例与之相对应的情况；③该研究区域内20年间有超过60%的中强地震震前并无"热异常"出现；④在研究潜热通量变化是否属于异常时，应尽量多地考虑各个方面的影响因素，科学合理地设定判断参数；⑤在研究潜热通量异常与地震的关系时，应对特定区域作长时间序列分析，而不是单纯针对短期内的个别震例进行判别。

Abstract:

In recent years,the relationship between the anomalies of surface latent heat flux and earthquakes has been a new subject of seismology study. It is a key problem that how to detect and extract the abnormal variation which is the result of seismic activities from the complicated latent heat flux varying background. In this study,by using the surface latent heat flux data of NCEP(National Center for Environmental Prediction),we discussed the SLHF anomalies prior and post to the Great East Japan Earthquake sequence. Besides,we also studied the relationship of earthquakes and SLHF anomalies of the study area in 21 years. The results suggest:(1)the SLHF variations which happened before the Great East Japan Earthquake were probably not anomalies,and they might not be caused by this occurrence;(2)there were many times "anomalies" which cannot find out any earthquake to be related to in this study area;(3)there were more than 60%earthquakes without any SLHF varying precursors;(4)related factors should be taken into account as many as possible to analyze relationships between SLHF variation and seismic activities;(5)we should investigate long time series data instead of focusing on individual earthquake event.