新疆精河6.6级地震前温泉水平摆异常特征分析

The analysis of anomalous characteristics of Wenquan horizontal pendulum before the Jinghe MS6.6 earthquake in Xinjiang

摘要:

2017年8月9日新疆精河发生6.6级地震，本文以温泉台水平摆观测数据为研究对象，首先研究温度、水位对其影响，结果表明，水平摆NS向倾斜量滞后气温约114天，它们之间的相关系数为-0.620195；EW向倾斜量滞后气温44天，相关系数为0.8449978；NS向倾斜量滞后水位约17天，相关系数为-0.6886279。然后，利用回归分析，选取适当的回归模型剔除温度、水位对温泉台水平摆观测数据的影响。最后，对回归残差序列进行分析。研究认为，精河6.6级地震前温泉台水平摆倾斜量的异常特征为：①NS分量自2015年10月29日之后的年变畸变，精河地震发生后，于2017年8月11日转向N倾，异常结束；②EW向倾斜量自2016年5月13日起出现持续E倾变化，截至地震发生时E倾幅度达0.88″。

Abstract:

A magnitude 6.6 earthquake occurred in Jinghe, Xinjiang, on August 9, 2017. In this paper, the observation data of the Wenquan horizontal pendulum is taken as the research object. We study the influence of temperature and water level on the observation data of the Wenquan horizontal pendulum. The results show that horizontal pendulum spa NS to lag temperature is about 114 days, and the correlation coefficient between them is -0.620195. The temperature difference between the temperature and the EW is 44 days, and the correlation coefficient between them is 0.8449978. The temperature of the hot spring is about 19 days, and the correlation coefficient between them is -0.6886279. Wenquan horizontal NS to lagging water level about 17 days, the correlation coefficient between them is -0.6886279. Secondly, the regression model was used to select the appropriate regression model to eliminate the influence of temperature and water level on the Wenquan horizontal pendulum. The regression residual sequence is analyzed. The abnormal characteristics of the hot spring level before the M_S6.6 earthquake include:(1)NS component after October 29, 2015 shows an annual distortion, and after the earthquake, in August 11, 2017 turns to N tilt, and ends as an abnormal. (2)EW component from May 13, 2016 on began to show a continuous E tilt change. When the earthquake occurred, the E tilt reaches as much as 0.88″.