基于蒙特卡洛方法的地震目录模拟及相符性检验——以汾渭地震带为例

Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method-A Case Study of the Fenwei Belt

摘要:

人工地震目录模拟是改进现有地震目录不完备性、弥补大地震记录稀缺，以及完善地震学相关研究的有效途径之一。本文基于地震活动的泊松分布模型、古登堡-里克特震级-频度关系，利用能较逼真描述具有随机性质事物特点及物理实验过程的蒙特卡洛方法，模拟汾渭地震带未来30、50、100年等不同时长的地震目录，并对其进行统计检验。分析表明，模拟地震目录符合设定的地震活动性参数和泊松分布假设特征。依据模拟地震目录，对未来该区域地震趋势进行了分析，以期为地震危险性分析提供参考。

Abstract:

Artificial earthquake catalog simulation is one of the effective ways to improve the incompleteness of existing earthquake catalogs as well as the scarcity of large earthquake records to meet the needs of the seismological research. Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter earthquake magnitude-frequency relationship hypothesis,a Monte-Carlo random independent repeated test method is used to simulate the Fenwei belt in the next 30 years,50 years,and 100 years. The analysis shows that the annual occurrence rate and b-value of the simulated catalog are completely consistent with the set GR relationship,which is consistent with the Poisson distribution hypothesis. The errors of b-value and annual incidence obtained from simulation of different years are given. Using this method,we can get better simulation results of long-term earthquake catalog. Based on the catalog of simulated earthquakes,the future seismic trend in this area is analyzed,providing reference for the analysis of seismic hazard.