关于地震科学实验场的一些思考——地下云图

Some Thoughts on the Earthquake Science Experiment Site-The Underground Cloud Map

摘要:

由中国地震局和美国国家科学基金委、地质调查局合作建立的地震预报研究实验场为中国早期地震工作的发展起到了良好的推动作用。由于种种客观原因，地震预报实验场的多数预想目标未能达成，发展受到了阻碍。最近几年，实验场重新受到重视，并更名为“地震科学实验场”。结合目前地震学发展的前沿和防震减灾事业的实际需求，本文提出增加“地下云图”作为实验场的新方向。利用高重复性、环境友好、安全性高的气枪震源，持续激发地震信号，实现对地下介质速度变化的连续监测；结合背景噪声成像获得的高分辨率3维地壳结构，构建4维（三维空间+一维时间）地下结构成像。“地下云图”可以反映地下速度和应力变化，为全国范围的地震监测预测提供新的业务手段，推动地震预测从经验预测到物理预测的转换。

Abstract:

The Western Yunnan Earthquake Predication Test Site set up by the China Earthquake Administration,the National Science Foundation Commission of America,and United States Geological Survey has played an important role for development of the early earthquake research work in China. Due to various objective reasons,most of the predicted targets in the earthquake prediction test site have not been achieved,and the development has been hindered. In recent years,the experiment site has been reconsidered again,and renamed as the "earthquake science experiment site". Combined with the current development of seismology and the actual needs of disaster prevention and mitigation,it increased the "underground cloud map" as the new direction of the experimental site,which is discussed in this paper. Using high levels of repeatability,environment friendly,high security airgun source,continuous excitation of seismic signals,it can realize the continuous monitoring of the velocity change of underground medium. Combined with background noise imaging,the high-resolution 3-D crustal structure can be obtained,and the 4-D(3D space+1D time)underground structure imaging can be constructed. The "underground cloud map" can reflect underground velocity and stress changes,providing new means of business for the national earthquake monitoring forecast,which will advance the conversion of earthquake prediction from experience to physical prediction.