公元1515年6月17日云南永胜7¾级地震的质疑

Verification of Historical Earthquake with MS7¾ in Yongsheng County, Yunnan Province, China on June 17, 1511

摘要:

16世纪初云南永胜发生过一次破坏性地震，长期以来其强度判定成为疑难问题。本文通过解读《明实录》以及地方志中相关史料记载认为，由于对《明实录》相关记述解读有误，以及采信了“石门阙”“田陷成湖”等地方志衍袭夸大、与自然规律相矛盾的记载，并“捆绑”了大理、鹤庆等2次破坏性地震，《中国历史强震目录》高判了此震强度，导致其地震影响场有悖于地震影响衰减的一般规律。本文分析表明，此地震时间为“弘治十五年七月己亥（1502年8月31日）”，强度≤7级。此永胜地震的强度问题会影响该地区未来地震的危险性分析、判断等。

Abstract:

It is essential to do seismic zoning of the historical earthquake epicenter and seismic intensity. A destructive earthquake occurred in Yongsheng, Yunnan in early 16th century. This is a doubtful earthquake. In this paper, we confirmed that the earthquake with M_S ≤ 7.0 occurred in Yongsheng County, Yunnan Province, China on August 31, 1502 or on June 1, 1511, by investigating the "Actual Records in the Ming Dynasty" and the "Local Chronicles Record". We found that the researchers adopted the records such as "stone doors destroyed, farm land sinking into the lake, etc. in the "Local Chronicles Record". These words conflict against the laws of nature. Another reason is that researchers mistook the Dali and Heqing earthquake as the Yongsheng earthquake, so they thought the historical earthquake with M_S7¾ occurred in Yongsheng County.