基于格网的全国尺度地震灾害损失预测系统设计与实现

Design and Realization of Earthquake Loss Prediction System in Nationwide Scale Based on Grid Data

摘要:

空间格网数据相比于矢量数据具有运算速度快、处理简单的特点，适合地震灾害损失震前预测或震后快速评估。但地震损失评估涉及地震危险性及人口、房屋建筑及其地震易损性等不同类型数据在全国范围内的千米格网分布，数据量大，数据变化时形成新的格网数据的工作量较大，使用常规震害预测算法会影响评估效率。依据地震损失评估原理，采取前置确定性损失评估策略和算法优化，结合GIS功能设计并编程实现了具有风险评估相关数据千米格网化处理、地震损失预测与震后快速评估等核心功能的软件系统。利用该系统进行了2016~2025年中国大陆千米格网地震损失预测，结果表明评估效率显著提高，该系统为我国新一代地震重点监视防御区的确定提供了实用化的震害损失预测工具，同时，在地震损失快速评估中亦得到较好应用。

Abstract:

The spatial grid data,with characteristics of the fast calculation and simple procession,are suitable for the pre-earthquake loss prediction or post-earthquake emergency loss assessment. As the earthquake loss assessment need a large amount of spatial grid(1km cell size)data set in nationwide such as seismic hazard,population,building area,and vulnerabilities of life and building hitted by earthquake. According to the principle of earthquake loss prediction,a solution is prepositively used to assess deterministically the losses of each grid cell with different intensity of seismic ground motion by optimized algorithm. Then a software system is designed and developed,supported with GIS functions,to realize the core functionalities including risk assessment related gridding data in 1km cell size. We therefore could get earthquake losses assessment and prompt post-earthquake losses assessment for response,etc. The earthquake loss of Chinese mainland from 2016 to 2025 is assessed in each 1km grid cell according to the system. The results show that the assessment efficiency is significantly improved. It provides us a practical tool for earthquake losses assessment and also shows better application to prompt assessment of loss after an earthquake.