基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型，结合震害预测方法，研发了一套震害预测系统，并以2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震的震害预测为例，将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明，采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计，在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面，相对于其他系统，本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。

Based on the regional earthquake ground motion attenuation relation,the site effect and the earthquake intensity and many factors,we eestablished a prediction model of earthquake damage,and developed a set of earthquake damage prediction system. Taking the earthquake damage prediction of the Jinghe M_S6.6 earthquake,Xinjiang on August 9,2017 as an example,the prediction results are compared with the current mainstream system. The results show that the ShakeMap_CNST system can make more accurate estimation in terms of the influence scope and intensity. Compared with other systems,the system results are very close to the field survey results in casualties,affected population estimates,number of emergency placement and evaluation of economic losses.

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“十三·五”国家科技重点研发计划项目课题（2017YFC1500905）、贵州省地震科技基金项目（GZDZ201901）、中国地震局星火计划课题（XH15044Y）共同资助