地震应急数据库中人口数据预测——以乌鲁木齐市为例

Prediction of Population Data in Earthquake Emergency Database——a Case Study of Urumqi

摘要:

利用统计年鉴、人口普查数据、遥感影像等资料，将乌鲁木齐市按区县级行政区域为单位提取近10年的人口数据，确定各区县历年来人口分布变化情况。挖掘研究区内人口-时间变量关系，建立人口预测模型——GM（1，1）模型，预测未来2年乌鲁木齐各区县人口数据，以弥补数据库数据因滞后2年无法及时更新所导致的数据空缺。

Abstract:

By using statistical yearbooks,census data,remote sensing images,we extracted all population data for the past 10 years at the Urumqi City's administrative region units,and we determined the changes in population distribution over the years in each unit of the study area. By excavating the relationship between population and time variables in the study area,we established a population forecasting model(GM(1,1)model)to predict population data in various districts of Urumqi in the next two years,and to make up for the data gaps that could not be updated in the next two years in the database.