通过分析墨江5.9级地震前预测意见和预测资料，认为云南地区M≥5.5地震平静异常突出，M≥5.0地震连续间隔时间达200天以上，通海2次5.0级地震震级偏小是震前地震活动异常的显著特征；通海地震的指示意义、前兆异常M≥5.7地震中期和M≥5.0地震短临综合预测指标是判断地震短期可能性的主要依据；1900年以来，通海50km范围内M≥5.0地震后云南地区发生M≥5.0地震优势对应关系和GNSS表征的区域面应变变化特征为地点判定提供了线索。墨江5.9级地震的预测经验及资料的论证丰富了对地震孕育复杂性的认识，为震例积累了新的资料。

By analyzing the forecast opinions and forecast data before the Mojiang M_S5.9 earthquake,we found that the M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in Yunnan are calm and abnormal,and the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have a continuous interval of more than 200 days. The small magnitude of the two earthquakes with M5.0 in Tonghai is a significant feature of seismic activity anomalies before the earthquake. The indication significance of the Tonghai earthquake and the precursory anomaly M ≥ 5.7 earthquake medium and M ≥ 5.0 earthquake short-term compre￣hensive forecast index is the main basis for judging the short-term risk of earthquake. Since 1900,the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in the 50km range of Tonghai has shown M ≥ 5.0 seismic superiority correspondence and the regional surface strain variation characteristics of GNSS characterization,which provide clues for location determination. The forecast experience and data of the Mojiang M_S5.9 earthquake enriches our understanding of the complexity of earthquakes and accumulates new information for earthquake case study.

P315

云南省青年地震科学基金项目（2018k08）、云南省地震局科技专项基金（2018ZX04）共同资助