基于历史地震数据的地震烈度与人员死亡率相关性研究

Research on Correlation between Earthquake Intensity and Mortality Rate Based on Historical Earthquake Data

摘要:

基于历史震例数据，通过对不同烈度的人员死亡率的分析发现，人员死亡率与地震烈度存在着正相关关系，即人员死亡率随烈度的增加而增大，不同烈度的人员死亡率有各自的分布区间范围，而通过对相邻烈度的人员死亡率的分析发现，相邻烈度人员死亡率存在着1个数量级的倍数关系，一般在10倍左右，在低烈度区域，倍数关系集中于偏向大于10倍的区间范围；在高烈度区域，倍数关系集中于小于10倍的区间范围。在此结果上，基于地震烈度、震级等因素构建了烈度人员死亡率模型，决定系数R²值为0.8667，拟合结果相对较好，能够为后续基于分烈度人员死亡率的地震人员死亡评估模型提供参考。

Abstract:

Using the historical earthquake data we carried out a study on the mortality rate of each intensity in this paper. Through the analysis, we found that there is a positive correlation between the mortality rate and the intensity, and the mortality rate increases with the increase of intensity, in which the mortality rate with different intensity has its own distribution range. We also found that there exists a multiple relationship of the adjacent intensity mortality rate, generally around 10 times. In the low-intensity area, the multiple relationship is concentrated in the interval range that is more than 10 times, in the high-intensity area, the multiple relationship is concentrated in the interval range that is less than 10 times. Finally, we built a mortality rate model for intensity which based on seismic intensity, magnitude and etc. with the model determination coefficient R² value of 0.8667. Our model can provide a technical tool for the subsequent earthquake death assessment modeling based on the intensity mortality rate.