地震应急是一个复杂动态的过程,需要各部门协同配合方能高效开展应急工作。本文通过调研分析历史地震应急处置案例,提出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ级应急响应下多主体地震应急协同的一般流程,构建了相应的随机Petri网模型,并基于Petri网可能出现的状态集同构马尔科夫链,在计算各应急状态稳定概率的基础上,定量评价应急协同能力。同时,将应急过程中利用率高的变迁所对应的应急行为,作为应急处置的关键环节。通过调整各关键环节的应急速率,进一步对应急协同能力进行动态分析,进而提出有效提高应急协同联动能力的相关建议,为科学开展地震应急处置工作提供支持。

Earthquake emergency is a complicated and dynamic process,which requires the cooperation of all departments to carry out the emergency work efficiently. Based on the investigation and analysis of historical earthquake emergency disposal cases,this paper puts forward the general process of multi-agent earthquake emergency coordination under all levels of emergency response,and constructs the corresponding stochastic Petri net model. Moreover,based on the possible isomorphic Markov chain of state set in Petri net,the emergency coordination ability is evaluated quantitatively on the basis of calculating the stability probability of each emergency state. At the same time,the emergency behavior corresponding to the change of high utilization rate in the emergency process is taken as the key link of emergency disposal. By adjusting the emergency rate of each key link,the dynamic analysis of emergency coordination capability is further carried out,and then the relevant suggestions for improving the ability of emergency coordination and linkage are put forward,which can provide support for scientific earthquake emergency disposal.

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“十三五”国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC1504505)、四川省地震科技创新团队专项(201901)共同资助