结合地震应急处置中的决策分阶段性和动态调整特征,通过分析地震事件和应急决策主体间的分阶段博弈过程,构建地震应急决策序贯博弈模型。在此基础上,引入贝叶斯理论,判定地震事件的灾害等级,实现对各阶段应急处置方案的动态调整。以九寨沟7.0级地震应急决策为例进行实例分析,结果表明,该方法具有可行性和合理性,决策主体在地震应急处置过程中根据阶段成果和实时信息调整处置方案,从而使不同处置阶段的决策建议更具针对性。

In this paper,by combining the phased and dynamic adjustment characteristics of decision-making in earthquake emergency response,we construct a sequential game model of earthquake emergency decision-making through analyzing the phased game process between the earthquake event and the emergency decision-making body. Then,we introduce the Bayesian theory to determine the disaster level of an earthquake event and realize dynamic adjustment of emergency response plans at various stages. Taking the M7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake as an example of the case study,we find that the method is operability and scientific,and it can fully not only satisfy the emergency decision-making body in the earthquake emergency response process,but also adjust the disposal plan according to the stage results and real-time information in order to make different decision-making suggestions at the disposal stage more targeted to the needs,which is of great significance in emergency practice.

P315

“十三五”国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC1504505)、四川地震科技创新团队专项(201901)共同资助