甘肃积石山6.2级地震人口热力分析

Population Heatmap Analysis of the Jishishan MS6.2 Earthquake,Gansu Province

摘要:

本研究旨在探讨手机信令数据在地震应急响应中的应用,重点分析地震灾害发生前后的人员时空分布特征,以深入挖掘人口热力在生命线工程(如道路交通主干线和通信网络)及地震地质灾害中的特征。研究结果显示:人口热力变化的分布特征与地震灾害现象具有较强的关联性,根据不同的变化特征,可推测出一定的地震灾害类型,特别是在道路交通主干线、地震地质灾害及通信基站退服方面,相关性较强;人口热力变化率对于识别重灾区具有良好的适应性,其优势方向与地震影响场的长轴方向基本一致。这表明,手机信令数据可为第一时间掌握重灾区、生命线工程(如道路交通主干线和通信网络)及地震地质灾害等核心灾情提供判断依据,可作为修正地震灾害影响场的辅助手段,还可作为地震黑箱期的重要应急响应资料,补充地震应急快速评估产品,为应急处置、续报和对策建议的产出提供帮助。

Abstract:

This study investigates the application of mobile signaling data in earthquake emergency response,with a focus on analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of populations before and after an earthquake. The objective is to extract insights into population heat map variations in relation to lifeline infrastructure(e.g.,major roads and communication networks)and earthquake-induced geological disasters. The research findings indicate a strong correlation between changes in population heat map distributions and earthquake disaster phenomena. Based on distinct patterns of change,certain types of earthquake-related disasters can be inferred,particularly in key infrastructure areas such as major roads,geological hazard zones,and communication base stations. Moreover,the rate of population heat map variation demonstrates high adaptability in identifying severely affected areas,with its directional trends generally aligning with the propagation of the earthquake's impact field. These results suggest that mobile signaling data can provide critical real-time assessments of disaster severity,lifeline infrastructure conditions,and geological hazards in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Additionally,it serves as an auxiliary tool for refining earthquake impact field estimations and as a crucial emergency response dataset during blackout periods when conventional data sources may be unavailable. Furthermore,it supplements rapid earthquake emergency assessment products,offering robust support for emergency response efforts,situational analysis,and strategic decision-making.